November 17th After The Bell Review

History repeats. The eternal optimism that is Wall Street is slowly fading into desperation. As the fallout from MF Global continues to spread, duck n cover becomes the trade.

We see today looking at the Financial ETF FAS, able to blow right past the line in the sand with no problem. A repeat of July-August seems to be in the making as I have noted 1-2-3 set up. Look for financials to bully back next week up to the declining 15 day sma, before the real fireworks begin. The bulls time is about up.
Today OIL gave us sell confirmation that we talked about last week. The DOJI candle followed by a long down day selling pressure sets up the pull back. CCI(30) is still in an uptrend, so for now we are looking to see what happens at the 38% retrace line in the sand. We should expect a bounce at that level.


Tim Kathlina

November 7th After The Bell Stock Trend Set Ups

Gold continues it's melt higher:

Gold is still in an uptrend noted in the CCI(30). RSI<2> and CCI(5) indicates an overbought condition. Candles have not given a loss of mojo signal-but note the August drop. GOLD tends to not provide a signal. Extension above upper Boilinger suggest setting a tight stop or harvesting profits.

GOLD short is in confirmed downtrend (noted CCI<30>). The divergence noted in RSI(2) verses todays closing price, indicates a potential snap back trade. Take down half position now, 2nd half after lost mojo signal in candles. Because this is downtrend-this is snap-pop trade only. Thus expect the trade to be exitied within 1-7 trading days with tight stop.

Financial Sector closed with a 5/15 bear cross-and Bearish Harami Pattern. Close outside upper bollinger, suggest potential move to lower end of the range. Since CCI(30) still is uptrending; the trade is a short below $13, expecting to cover within 1-4 trading days; tight stop above $13.10.

OIL closed outside BB today. CCI(5) showing a negative divergence. RSI(2) at 95, historically suggest underperformance in the week or weeks to follow. Because in confirmed uptrend, with no loss of mojo in candles apparent, take 1/2 half short position now, with cover stop above $26.

These are the best high probability/low risk sets ups for November 7th. Set-ups can take 1 week to play out.

Tim Kathlina