Noted in my last post, the overlap and sub wave numbers do line up for this probability. My concern for this is the FAST move back towards the 50% retrace level. This is day 3 and markets have already retraced 38% of the 5 sub waves.
Any trend allows for one to four day counter trends; even up to seven days. Therefore, the market is still within this allowable range, yet has already retraced a distance that a normal second wave would take at least two weeks to a month to complete.
In other words, what I am saying is the time and distance doesn't sit well with me to validate this count.
Short term traders use RSI<2>, overbought above 90, oversold below 5, for potential early warning of turns.
This fast move, within the 4 day counter trend allowable time frame, already overbought at 90 on RSI<2>, and reaching close to 50% retrace; feels more like a fast counter trend and not a completion of EW1, moving into EW2.
Next SPY chart I have noted a trend channel, with RSI<2> +90 tops and <5 lows. Since EW is conflicting at this point, lets stick with this trend channel until proven otherwise-leaving off any EW counts.
If this market can get past 7 days and take out 61% of the decline, this is not a bear market.
Tim Kathlina
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