After The Bell-Name Brand Companies that Got Crushed Watch List Dec 27

Nov 2006 SHLD was $200 per share. Jim Cramer/Mad Money indicated this company was a mini Berkshire Hathaway and the stock was going much higher.

Today with a 27% beat down and shares no where near $200, we add this name brand into our Crushed Name Brands watch list. Recent entries include: American Greetings and Netflix.

Tim Kathlina

After The Bell: Name Brand Stocks That Got CRUSHED-American Greetings

Many people understand bargain shopping; except when it comes to stocks. For some reason, the average person will buy a blender on sale, negotiate a good deal on an automobile, but when it comes to stocks, people will over pay every time. Everyone loves to look at a chart of a stock that has gone up 1000% over a few years, but nobody wants to buy that lower left, best price on the chart. Why-unlike other things, buying cheap stocks is SCARY! Scary because of what makes them get cheap: earnings miss, downgrades, etc.

What I do is create a notepad file titled: Brand Name Stocks That Got CRUSHED! A person can make a living as a value fund manager by identifying these picks, then giving them time, months and months, to finally panic out the most bullish of bulls.

Today's add is American Greetings. Here is VectorVest views on AM:

Company Information
Business: American Greetings Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of greeting cards and other social expression products worldwide. It offers everyday and seasonal greeting cards, gift wrap, party goods, calendars, stationery, gift ware, and custom display fixtures.

Capital Appreciation
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. AM has a current Value of $20.78 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $13.23 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.

DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. AM has a Dividend Yield of 4.54 %. This is above the current average of 1.46% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database.

Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. AM has a Sell recommendation.

Conclusion: AM is most likely just beginning a 5 wave down move that will cut the shares at least in half from here. Currently with only a 500 million market cap on 2 billion revenue, paying 5% div yield to hold the stock, when the average yearly market s&p return is 7%, this play is a winner. Downside price targets can be projected, once we see this 1st leg down. Until then we keep it on our list, like a Christmas present in waiting.

Tim Kathlina

After The Bell-Before The Bell SPY Update Dec 23rd

On Dec 18th I identified the correct uptrend for the SPY using Pitchfork analysis. At the time, the market bears looked like they were going to give the bulls a knock out blow with no Santa Rally.

On Dec 13th I used price and time counting to project an upside target and date. At the time, again bearish news headlines ruled the day.

Today we are focused on a 1 month chart of SPY, to help support or deny my previous post. When forecasting, its important to check your list twice, use multiple time frames, multiple indicators and re-check often.

On this chart I included volume by price bars to the left side of the chart; we are concerned with the longest bar. Stock trading is about price discovery, where is the balance between buyers and sellers?

The longest bar is at the 124/125 level. In early December, this area of supply won the day moving the shares lower. Negative headlines, along with the 200 day moving average proved too firm of resistance for the bulls.

The question is: will supply overcome demand once again? Please do not under estimate the bulls ability to run the SPY up to my previous price targets, once able to move past an overhead supply area. What was resistance quickly becomes support when the area is broken to the upside.

OBV is trending higher. The strong move up starting Dec 14th.

The largest open interest for call contracts for January is 130, right around my price target - noted Dec 13th. Options expiration is too far out for this to be a factor; but stocks tend to gravitate towards option prices that make the contracts worthless.

Conclusion: My forecast for 1290 to 1320, although many times in December looked improbable, remains. The forecast remains not because stocks should be going up, they should not be (Look at ORCL earnings miss, 1st in 10 years), the forecast remains because the technicals have not changed.

Despite the rest of the worlds stock markets already in a bear, the USA extend and pretend continues on for just a little while longer.

This is not a recommendation to buy the SPY, just a forecast for a top. On the contrary, I would be running from bull positions as fast as possible. One bank failure and its all over.

I am averaging into TVIX.

Tim Kathlina

After The Bell-Time To Buy Insurance Against 2012 December 21st

I have noted prior my expectation for a impulsive major bear wave 3 down move to begin in January 2012.

It is my intention to begin accumulating insurance protection against the bear move in the form of ETF's that track 2xs or more the VIX-Volatility index. Based on the charts below, I feel the time to begin taking a position is now.

This first chart is the inverse VIX index, symbol XIV. This ETF moves higher as market participants become more and more complacent and comfortable with the world and stocks. I still find it hard to believe after the daily deluge of failed government attempts to put lipstick on the finance pig, stock investors are feeling giddy; according to XIV.

Putting that aside, closing outside the upper BBand, RSI2 over 99, is always a sell signal.

The next two charts are the opposite. The TVIX and VIXY move up as the investor fear level rises. With the world on the verge of collapse, one would think these stocks wouldn't be performing so poorly.

History is repeating: crash of 1929, crash of 1987, dot.com bust of 2000, housing bust 2007, Bear Stearns and Lehman collapse 2008. Today, same as all the other times, the Tulip Bulb Ponzi stock investors, are the last ones to figure things out.

Conclusion: If the market tops now or 5 months from now, the technical picture for buying insurance protection has never been better.

Time to average into these TVIX and VIXY plays every week or other week until the musical chairs, ponzi stock market catches up to reality.

Tim Kathlina

After The Bell-Mid-Day Update Risk On TMV Dec 20

These days when setting up your next swing trade, a trader has to look at EVERYTHING. By that I mean everything: Europe, Asia, Currencies, Bonds, commodities, headlines, etc. It's not enough anymore just to go thru earnings reports for US companies and make your picks.

This market rewards EXTREME Reversals and nothing else. The name of the game today is being ready to FLIP FLOP just as the EXTREME sentiment for a particular direction sets in.

TMV is a BEAR ETF that moves in inverse fashion of the 20 year T-Bill. As the market sells bonds (risk off) in order to buy stocks (risk on) TMV moves higher.

Going thru dozens of ETF stock index charts-the frustrating thing is they are directionless. Both the BEAR and BULL ETF trackers trade basically right down the middle of their ranges. So for trading clues, we have to look at other stuff.

TMV is currently showing a nice divergence in the direction of the stock, which is down, verses some technical indicators.

Looking first at RSI<2>, a short term indicator we use for swing trading, we are seeing the same divergent set up as in Winter 2010. Notice in 2010, the extreme low readings in RSI<2> began to rise, even as TMV price continued lower. This was your first clue to the weakening downtrend and possible reversal.

ADX(the black line) in our next indicator was our next clue. As the TMV downtrend progressed, the ADX line that was neutral, began to pickup momentum. ADX reflects strength of trend up to a certain point. Remember trends tend to exhaust into completion, so extreme ADX readings, signal a trend that is coming to an end.

OBV indicator gives us no signal.

Bring forward to today, winter 2011, we see the exact same set-up forming; although a little latter in the year.

The last move was 5 months up in 2010, however that was with QE2 at our back.

Here we are looking at the US dollar ETF to try and piece this puzzle together. The reason I point this chart out is because of the ADX. Notice unlike TMV, ADX for UUP has not signaled a direction change.

Conclusion: TMV seems to be forecasting a change of current trend, risk off, to a risk on trend. This also backs up my SPY forecast to move higher into 2012. The question becomes, if correct, is this another 5 months of upside as in 2010?

UUP adx however just points to a simple pull back and then continuation of uptrend. This will continue to be the trigger to bring about wave 3 sell off.

I stick with my forecast for a strong impulsive down wave soon; the biggest bull trap in 90 years.

Tim Kathlina

After The Bell-Using Andrews PitchFork to Find SPY Dominate Trend

Definition of 'Andrew's Pitchfork'

A technical indicator that uses three parallel trend lines to identify possible levels of support and resistance. The trend lines are created by placing three points at the end of identified trends. This is usually achieved by placing the points in three consecutive peaks or troughs. Once the points have been placed, a straight line is drawn from the first point that intersects the midpoint of the other two

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/andrewspitchfork.asp#ixzz1gvsRXO8U

Identifying and anticipating trends is how one makes money in the stock market.  Using Andrews PitchFork is a good place to start when you set out to identify and project trends. Simply work left to right plotting highs and lows until something fits.

Chart 1 from left to right shows that the August fast down move was not able to be sustained by the bears. Once the C-line of the fork was broken to the upside and retested, no matter the justifiable reasons for the sell off, a money runner must go back and reconsider what is the current DOMINATE TREND.

Again, if you run money for a living, its about getting POINTS, nothing else matters.

Chart 2 correctly identifies the current DOMINATE trend. S&P has been moving in this angle of trend for a few months. Its confirmed by the pull back angles from top of fork to bottom; consistent with the initial set up B-C angle.

Chart 3 I believe indicates a new faster trend; changing pull back angle.  Notice A did not pull all the way back to the bottom of the DOMINATE fork C angle, thus changing the slope. I have drawn new angle C down to the Dominate angle C, BUT we don't know yet what tomorrow brings. Should the SPY bottom at its current price, this would make our new fork angle even a faster trend. From FAST trends and FAST angles, we get direction changes; which is what we are looking for.

Chart 4- I project a NEW DOMINATE FORK cycle based on my previous post about squaring of price and time projection, sometime in the beginning or end of January.

Lets have a look at the NASDAQ 100. You might be shocked. We can't just eyeball these charts and think we can pick out the story. Even though SPY and NASDAQ charts look same, they tell a different story.

Chart 1-Same as S&P, initial bear crunch could not be sustained.

Chart 2-Fast Bull trend could also not be sustained. The punch, counter punch between Bull and Bear is now a draw.

Chart 3-Is what I believe to be the current DOMINATE trend, which shows that even though the Bears have conceded a few rounds; this is a twelve round heavy weight fight and the Bulls have not taken the upper hand. OBV also backs this trend up as it continues to move lower and away from the 20 moving average.

Conclusion-Look for DOMINATE trends to buy and sell within; then keep eye out for a SUB-DOMINATE trend that foreshadows a potential change of trend. Getting the BIG picture right, helps eliminate all the noise in your trades and the volatility that eats up profits.

Tim Kathlina

After The Bell- Gold Update Dec 14th

Short term trading, we use RSI<2> instead of RSI<14> to indicate trend change; short term. Studies show RSI below 2, outperform the following week or weeks verses stocks above 90 RSI<2>. We also like to see an exhaustion/panic move into the RSI<2> low.

As noted on the chart below, GOLD is providing that set up now. I believe it could also be the general foreshadow of the broader indexes to make one last push into a final high. Notice each push off the lows resulted in a lower high, with the latest exhaustion move taking out the 200 day.

Make no mistake, commodities are signaling a massive market pull back; expect collapse in all leveraged investments.

How do we play this trade?? We don't go long GLD, we short GLL.

Tim Kathlina

After the Bell-Before The Fed Dec 13th QE3 or No QE3?

What happens when the FED monetizes things? More dollars are printed and chase after the same amount of product, thus increasing the products price and decreasing the value or purchasing power of the money.
So, in a QE3 scenario, that would mean Gold goes higher, US dollar goes lower against a rising Euro dollar.

Stocks and Bill Gross from Pimco and other Wall St players are convinced the FED is soon to begin QE3. But as we see in the charts below, GOLD investors, and currency traders so far seem to think otherwise.

So who is correct??????????? Your guess is as good as mine.

Tim Kathlina

December 13th-Before the Bell SPY Market of 3's

This may surprise you, it certainly does me, when I say, "We are still in a TECHNICAL BULL move". Now, that can change with the stroke of 1 trading day, but if we are going to be "technical pure chartists" and check at the trading door, what we think should be, then the only conclusion is the bulls for the next few days/weeks, still control. The standard retrace in any uptrend/bull is 38%. I have the weekly chart noted from the 2009 low, the two obvious pull backs. Both pullbacks are a symmetrical standard Bull 38% retrace from the low.

When forecasting, look for human traits. In other words, some type of repeating pattern, habit, symmetry. I have marked calender day points of high/low turns which show to be evenly divisible by 3. So it appears the market is moving in division of 3's. The daily chart has calculated R1 at 1290. If we take 1290<h>-1050<L>=240, WHICH divides evenly by 3. In addition 240 calender days on the 1 year cycle from the 45 low(noted on far left) would be, as I noted in the XLI post, 1st week of January.

That sure would make a nice Christmas tight bow on top, for a perfect squaring of price and time.

Now lets look at weekly SPY. Again, because the standard Fib retrace in an BULL move is 38%, and the fact remains that despite all the bad news, the market has held symmetrical 38% pull backs, I am forced to count my Elliot Waves as noted below. Please don't confuse a technical bull move, with a bull market. We are not in a Bull market. We are in a 20 year BEAR cycle that still has a long way to conclude. Having said that, some of the best BULL runs occur in Bear markets from a points perspective. (When it comes to running money for a living, POINTS is all that matters. Investors don't give a hoot about philosphy or your astrology or what ever; POINTS and PROFITS) I will post a link to a YouTube CSPAN interview of the authors of the book, "The 4th Turning". This interview was in 1997, and their predictions are spot on. It's a must watch.

OK, so we completed the 1st of two-5 EW up waves in 2010, thank you QE1. We avoided a bear market and did the standard 38% bull retrace in Sept/Nov 2010, thank you QE2.

Calculated R1 on weekly is 1320. If we take 1320<H>-1050<L>=270 points. This would square by 3 along with a moving into this price by end of Jan/1st week of Feb. Conclusion: We have determined the market is moving by 3s. There is a possibility that a top is in, if we take the daily 60days up from October low which divides by 3, but it makes for a sloppy price/time squaring on daily and doesn't allow for price/time squaring on weekly. So for now I will stick with looking for something symmetrical, exhausting pattern into a high with extreme bullish sentiment that allows for 5 wave EW completion.

The 4th turning 1997 CSPAN Interview. This is spot on and provides absolute certainty we are in bear times; and maybe even END TIMES.

Tim Kathlina

After The Bell-December 11th When is the top???

Here we are looking at etf XLI-Industrial for broader index clues. What we know is markets have been artificially floated by algos and crooked bankers/politicians who are accomplishing nothing more then making the coming collapse much worse and devastating then it otherwise would have been. It is a stated goal of the New World Order to inflict max pain when they finally pull the plug. So, its important to carry the markets a few rounds while they get the pieces in place to handle the violent protest and civil unrest uprisings that will ensue once the fiat system collapses.

Using our Gann method of time analysis, the best shot of a top comes in the 90 day from October low time frame, or 1st week in January. XLI Friday formed a Bullish Harami pattern. I project a potential perfect squaring of time and price, should XLI be able to move to $36, or 10 points from the October low. This also moves into R2 just above the 200 day moving average, creating a false break pattern. All the CNBC talking heads get trapped in a perceived new bull break out; thus setting up the max pain scenario desired by NWO.

Forecasting has become next to impossible in these hijacked markets, unless you have tomorrows newspaper. But, the next perfect squaring of price and time would be 1st week of January or 90 days, 10 points up from the low at $36. Wait for non-conformation from OBV and SAR sell signal before shorting.

Tim Kathlina

December 7th After The Bell-On Balance Volume

On Balance Volume defined-Total volume for each day is assigned a positive or negative value depending on prices being higher or lower that day. A higher close results in the volume for that day to get a positive value, while a lower close results in negative value.^[2] So, when prices are going up, OBV should be going up too, and when prices make a new rally high, then OBV should too. If OBV fails to go past its previous rally high, then this is a negative divergence, suggesting a weak move

EDC-Emerging markets-prices higher, but OBV lower lows.

EDZ-Emerging markets bear-lower highs, but new high On Balance Volume. Again, no confirmation of rally.

SOXS-Semi Bear, again as prices pull in, smart money is stepping in and buying.

TQQQ-As the bull etf moves higher, OBV moves lower; not confirming the bull move. OBV shows smart money selling the rally.

Finally the fear gauge measure-VIX. As the market algos push stocks higher on every EU bs rumor, its clear smart money gets more and more nervous. As the Vix falls, money has zoomed in to buy protection.

Finally, per ICI fund flow data out today for fund flows over the last week, average joe American sold a whopping $6.7 billion from domestic equity funds: the most since the week after the US downgrade.

Tim Kathlina

Before the Bell Update Dec 6th

We are not able to look at America and Europe for direction; supposed free nation capitalist economies. No you see, these markets have been hi-jacked by banks and corrupt governments. Instead, if we want to see capitalism in action, we have to look to the communist.
Looking at the etf YANG, which tracks Asia from a bearish point of view, it appears some major economic headwinds are on the horizon. Funny, all we used to hear from the sell side used car salesman, otherwise known as Wall St, was how Asia was going to save our economy. Not hearing that so much anymore. Wonder why???
Clearly YANG has completed its 3 year downtrend and is now on the 4th minor pullback of a 5 wave up move to complete wave 1 of what will be 5 waves to new all time highs.
The collapse is coming my friends, Americans know it. That's why the best selling Black Friday item, was not LCD TVs, or Xbox; nope, it was guns and ammo.

Tim Kathlina