Tuesday, May 1, 2012

S&P TIMINING UPDATE MAY 1ST

On March 22nd I posted this chart indicating that April 1st or 180 days from a significant previous low could begin the 4th wave pullback that we have been looking for.

 On April 1st, finally a target date held, and we did indeed get the 4th wave pull back.
The next chart is a current SPY with calculated topping pivot prices over layed. The Roman numbers count the 5-sub waves that complete the 3rd wave marked 3V.

To confirm the 4th wave, we look for two things:

1. The index to pull back in an equal or similar number amount to previous pull backs in this sub wave and/or

2. The pull back to overlap the sub 4 wave pull back, either equal to, within the range of, or exceeding.

Both conditions have been achieved; a match in total points, noted with a circled B, 7 points, and the pullback was large enough to overlap the sub IV pull back within 3rd wave.

This now puts us squarely in a 5th and final wave to completion before the markets begin to price in the real world.


5th and final waves tend to be 30-45 days in length. You can make your date calculations based on the low dates of the 4th wave, which showed a double bottom; begin to make shorting plans.

We will use the current calculated FIB pivots for top targets. Those are subject to change depending on how bullish this 5th wave gets. (Remember, per Wall St, stocks never go down and are never expensive)

I'm looking for buy indication on the Three Line charts of multiple bear ETF's as the ultimate trend has changed signal.

Tim Kathlina

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