AFTER THE BELL-TVIX TIMING UPDATE FEB 18TH

During the 1st hour of trading on Feb 16th, I posted on Twitter that I was exiting TVIX trade; citing DOJI at resistance and FED Speak. I then posted this chart on the blog.

The question now is, when to get back in?

This 1st chart is of TVIX daily-1year. The left and right side declines I have marked with the appropriate Elliott Wave counts.

The A-wave in June 2011 retraced the entire 5th wave. (Common A-Wave retraces are 1, .618, .5) This retrace helps confirm our EW count is correct.

Standard days of retrace typically are 9 to 13 days. Notice the A-wave was 13 days up, B-wave was 13 days down. (Again, confirming the count)

Moving forward to today, the A-wave retraced 50% of the 5th wave. (Confirming the EW count)

I do not know if B-wave will be an irregular move, making a marginal new low, or retrace the standard .382 or .50 of A.

Assuming a strong blow off top in the broader indexes next week; I am looking for a marginal new low in TVIX.



Next chart we zoom in on this A-wave action and note the 9 days up into volume resistance. (Standard pattern)

I am now looking for 9 days down to complete B-wave.

Next we look at cycle time using 1 year chart. Using our FIB number ratios, we note the highs and lows of this cycle are lining up perfectly to the corresponding FIB time frame. (We look for pattern changes at Fib Cycle Times)

I have counted from the FIB 13 week, each week up until now. We just completed FIB week 19. FIB week 21, where trend changes occur, is the week of FEB 27TH.

I expect TVIX to put in a cycle bottom the week of FEB 27TH, in other words, completion of B-wave. (Most likely the end of the week or 9 trading days)

This low could be a 1/8th extension of the 5TH wave bottom $14.26x1/8= $12.54

Conclusion:

Based on Fib Time analysis and EW counts; I expect TVIX is putting in a significant bottom in price and time.

I look for this bottom process to extend out to March 9th in a possible A-B-C-D pattern, with the B-wave being the absolute low price; the week ending FEB 27TH.

At this time, I feel like the major indexes are in a 3rd wave, not a 5th wave. If this assumption is true, then I believe TVIX will complete its next 5 waves up in 4.7 weeks, or sometime early April.

Tim Kathlina