S&P Warning Of Imminent Greek Default Again, But Promises All Shall Be Well, Dallara Speaks
You have heard history repeats? It's True.
Looking at TVIX, the power of the pattern suggest a historical repeat of 2011. Not only does the chart suggest that, but we can take 2011 headlines, such as the one above by ZeroHedge, and change to 2012; they all read the same.
Again we are trading TVIX because it offers the most, and quickest upside once a decline begins and it also provides a well defined low. Unlike ALL OTHER bear ETFs, that can go down and reverse split forever, the volatility index generally only goes so low.
TVIX exhibits what I believe are 3 repeating patterns, with Pattern 2 about to be embarked on soon. I expect the shares to jump up to $30, followed by headlines out of Europe that all the problems are solved, sending the shares sharply back below $20, which then sets up the final Pattern 3 scenario as we realize the sh_t is about to hit the fan.
This time, unlike last time however, I expect TVIX to go much higher. The reason being a full 5 wave up cycle will have been completed in the S&P by the time P3 begins, ushering in the start of P3 bear that will ultimately take the S&P to sub 600.
Conclusion: History is repeating as central planners believe doing the same thing, only more of it, will bring about a different result.
We added to TVIX position today, will probably scale that back at $30, then look to re-enter on the final pull back below $20, all in.
Tim Kathlina
No comments:
Post a Comment