December 13th-Before the Bell SPY Market of 3's

This may surprise you, it certainly does me, when I say, "We are still in a TECHNICAL BULL move". Now, that can change with the stroke of 1 trading day, but if we are going to be "technical pure chartists" and check at the trading door, what we think should be, then the only conclusion is the bulls for the next few days/weeks, still control. The standard retrace in any uptrend/bull is 38%. I have the weekly chart noted from the 2009 low, the two obvious pull backs. Both pullbacks are a symmetrical standard Bull 38% retrace from the low.

When forecasting, look for human traits. In other words, some type of repeating pattern, habit, symmetry. I have marked calender day points of high/low turns which show to be evenly divisible by 3. So it appears the market is moving in division of 3's. The daily chart has calculated R1 at 1290. If we take 1290<h>-1050<L>=240, WHICH divides evenly by 3. In addition 240 calender days on the 1 year cycle from the 45 low(noted on far left) would be, as I noted in the XLI post, 1st week of January.

That sure would make a nice Christmas tight bow on top, for a perfect squaring of price and time.

Now lets look at weekly SPY. Again, because the standard Fib retrace in an BULL move is 38%, and the fact remains that despite all the bad news, the market has held symmetrical 38% pull backs, I am forced to count my Elliot Waves as noted below. Please don't confuse a technical bull move, with a bull market. We are not in a Bull market. We are in a 20 year BEAR cycle that still has a long way to conclude. Having said that, some of the best BULL runs occur in Bear markets from a points perspective. (When it comes to running money for a living, POINTS is all that matters. Investors don't give a hoot about philosphy or your astrology or what ever; POINTS and PROFITS) I will post a link to a YouTube CSPAN interview of the authors of the book, "The 4th Turning". This interview was in 1997, and their predictions are spot on. It's a must watch.

OK, so we completed the 1st of two-5 EW up waves in 2010, thank you QE1. We avoided a bear market and did the standard 38% bull retrace in Sept/Nov 2010, thank you QE2.

Calculated R1 on weekly is 1320. If we take 1320<H>-1050<L>=270 points. This would square by 3 along with a moving into this price by end of Jan/1st week of Feb. Conclusion: We have determined the market is moving by 3s. There is a possibility that a top is in, if we take the daily 60days up from October low which divides by 3, but it makes for a sloppy price/time squaring on daily and doesn't allow for price/time squaring on weekly. So for now I will stick with looking for something symmetrical, exhausting pattern into a high with extreme bullish sentiment that allows for 5 wave EW completion.

The 4th turning 1997 CSPAN Interview. This is spot on and provides absolute certainty we are in bear times; and maybe even END TIMES.

Tim Kathlina