Before The Bell-RISK OFF DIVY TIME-DEMAND RETURN FEB 8TH

It's that time again for Portfolio Re-balance. If your running money for a living or just investing for yourself, Portfolio Re-balancing, has to become a part of your inner soul, in order to survive.

What happens to folks who have not done this game a while, they, as we all do, have our favorite MOJO stocks or areas of interest. These areas of interest at times will outperform the markets. The problem comes when the market shifts gears and moves away from the areas we love. People have a hard time adapting to areas they don't care about, or find BORING.

But what have I said many times: this game is about getting points-nothing else matters.

As we move into many dates coming up that are potential calculated highs, included TODAY THE 8TH as the 180 day window, it's important to get DEFENSIVE and DEMAND payment for your investment.

The ways we get defensive are to buy insurance, ie TVIX, and to buy into companies that PAY YOU a big % to hold their stock. We also must insist, that their stock doesn't move very much, ie-low BETA.

Here are 5 prospects for you to consider, that offer bullish charts in one form or another, have low BETA readings, and pay you well above the market % divy payout to hold their stocks.

1. DTE- DTE Energy Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in Michigan.

Stock has broken out of narrowing BBands and pays you almost 5% to hold their shares.

PBI-Pitney Bowes -Pitney Bowes Inc. provides mail processing equipment and integrated mail solutions worldwide.

PBI is one of my favorites. Has been channeling for years and pays you 8% to hold their stock. The historical average market return is 7%.

PNW-Pinnacle West Capital -Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail and wholesale electric services primarily in the State of Arizona. The company involves in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity through coal, nuclear, gas and oil, and solar resources.

Great volume support under what looks to be consolidation. Pays almost 5% to hold their stock.

XOM-Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, and manufacture of petroleum products, as well as transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products.

Inverted Head N Shoulders suggest more upside. Iran war in September 2012 driving crude to $400 wont hurt either.

ABT-Abbott Laboratories engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of health care products worldwide.

Two BULLISH KICKERS(see my report) on this chart. You know I LOVE A BULLISH KICKER. Very low volatility and pays you 4% to hold the shares.

Conclusion:

There are times to play offense, there are times to play defense. With the market up 14% in a few short weeks for no reason at all other then EASY MONEY, its time to play defense.

I know these boring stocks go against the need to ring 777 casino style, ala NetFlix that last few weeks, but now is not the time for that type of gamble.

Tim Kathlina

AFTER THE BELL-SPY TIMING UPDATE FEB 7TH

On Jan 7th, I posted this chart of IBM and stated:
In a bull market, we would expect this pattern to fail; not so in a bear market. I expect the action/reaction dynamics to kick once the Head-n-Shoulders IBM pattern breaks the neckline. This will bring in a short trap, and give us the final S&P push to new highs for 2012. -Tim Kathlina Jan 7th

Today's IBM chart shows the H&S pattern was successfully denied, as we anticipated. Once the neckline was broken, the Washington plunge protection team went into overdrive to ward off the beginning of a broad market P3 sell off.

I indicated in Jan that IBM was the uber bull stock and the one to watch for signs of market exhaustion as a leading indicator. I posted this chart that divides IBM:SPY and noted a change from years past.

It appears that the successive QE programs have inflated the balloon, unlike 2009 and 2010, by the end of 2011, forming a distribution Diamond pattern. This pattern points to a long term top of some sort.

Today, the same IBM:SPY sub division confirms the BEAR DIAMOND; the pattern resolved lower. RSI has moved into a clear downtrend and MACD has a bear cross.

This is a long term OMINOUS SIGN for the broader index's.

Jan 28th I posted this SPY chart and stated:

If we take the weekly chart from bottom of Wave 1, to the top of Wave 3, its 31points. 5th waves tend to equal .61 of other waves. If we take the bottom of the 5 wave, add in 18 points we come to a price target of 133.

Next lets look at length of time. Counting from October low, we are coming into the 180 time frame from the low. The divisible numbers by 3 are strong point and time areas to look for tops and bottoms. So anytime between now and Feb 8th is a strong place for market turn.-Tim Kathlina Jan 28

Tomorrow is Feb 8th and the SPY closed at 134. So, we are correct on PRICE, will we be correct on TIME?????

If we are not correct, then here is the alternate evidence view points.

I. There has been no pickup in volume, in fact just the opposite. What does this suggest?

   A> The end of Wave 5s, volumes tend to rise sharply. This has not happened; suggesting that my above    counts for a truncated wave 5 are incorrect. This is why I have said, DO NOT BUY leverage Bear ETFs until the count is clear, other then VIX because of defined lows. (People get nervous the higher the market goes)

2. If this isn't a Truncated Wave 5, then what is the option 1 count and projection?

   A> The likely probability is we are in a Complex SUB DIVIDED Wave 3, with the top between 137.54 to 145. (I have noted the alternate count on the chart below)

   B> This probability is high as RSI<14> has not gotten overbought, (strange as that seems), and volume continues to move lower.

   C>When wave 3 is complete, expect a 38% Fib retract to symmetrical SPY 109.85 to complete Wave 4.





3. Option 2 count (Be prepared to be scared). This of course is low probability at this point, but here goes.

    A>Assuming perfect SYMMETRY between the 5 waves of the 2009-2010 move,

          then 2011-2012 math works out to be S&P 1700 for a top. OUCH!

Conclusion:

As I write this CHINA is down almost 2%, yet US futures are indicated slightly higher. Feb 8th is 180 time cycle, and our last top chance until end of the month. If tomorrow doesn't roll over, by Friday at most, then alternate counts noted above, which are SPY 137-145, have to be assumed.

The markets are no longer a function of price discovery based on historical measures, like debt/assets, price to earnings, etc, etc. T.V. pundits will justify any upside pricing the market provides using these measures; ie cook the books.

The fact is the markets are solely a function of liquidity; air in the balloon. The air is the velocity of money, printed out of thin air by Central Banks, backed by nothing, each representing additional debt slavery hoisted unto mankind for the sole purpose of servicing the Banking Oligarchy; of whom stated goals are of a New World Order and population reduction, otherwise known as Eugenics. (ala Hitler,Stalin,Obama)

Due to this money printing, and the belief by Keynesian traders that they have no systemic risk, STOCKS CAN GO MUCH HIGHER, BEFORE D-DAY.

The bubble will burst, just as Japan Nikki did, going from over 40,000, to under 9000, 20 years latter.

The best that we can do, is game the system as it is, NOT as we want it to be.

In other words, assuming S&P 1700, then you want to be long the most shorted, overvalued stocks you can find. (Thus our Brand Names that Got Killed Trade List) Because those are the shares that will get pushed to unreal highs by these banking elites.

Not because they believe the company story, because NOBODY else does and the Bankers have UNLIMITED CASH, at NO RISK TO THEM. They can squeeze the shorts until there is not one single one left.

Lets see what happens the rest of this week.

Tim Kathlina

GEMS UNDER $1-PEOPLESTRING CORP PLPE FEB 6TH

PeopleString <Ticker PLPE>  is a Multi-level Marketing company masquerading as a Social Networking Site.

Checking PLPE Alexa rankings shows:

Page Views Down 24% last 3 months
Page Views/User Down 12% 3 months
Single Page Views Up 15% 3 months
Search Engine Request up 56% Yesterday

< http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/peoplestring.com >

Here is a 4 minute interview by Bloomberg with the CEO of PeopleString describing his company:

Technical View:

The stock has descended via a 3-stair down move, completed by the fast rate of decent in the 3rd leg of the decline; which is typical for bottoms.

We then see a nice consolidation basement box of 7 weeks, lending further evidence of solid support at this level. The shares broke to the upside on Friday, almost reaching the upper Boilinger Bands around .17c.

I suspect the Facebook IPO news was used as the catalyst to force the shares higher and work off the oversold condition.

The Questions are:

a> what is the upside potential of Peoplestring verses downside?

b>Is there a chance FaceBook would be interested in buying this company?

Lets answer the 2nd question 1st,  NO Facebook would have ZERO reason to want this company.

PeopleString just isn't big enough to move the financial needle for FaceBook and its shareholders. FaceBook will have a 100 Million Market Cap, thus needing big scale revenue streams to justify what is sure to be a very bloated valuation.

Per CNBC this morning:

Facebook is set to begin showing advertisements to users on mobile devices within weeks in an effort to tap a new source of revenues before it goes public

Valuation:

When I am looking to buy a Micro, I always look at buyout potential price, then bounce that against the current price. For the unproven revenue streams of many Micros, I like to use the rule of thumb 2x revenue. There are endless ways to value a company for purchase, this is the route I take to determine a fair market price.

Looking at the annual revenue numbers reported on Yahoo:

2010   2009

2.6M   742T

PLPE float is 21 million shares.

If we assume the same growth rate going forward of 300%, then I am willing to use 3 multiplier, just to give PLPE the longest valuation rope.

Assuming PLPE can generate revenue of 8 million by Dec 2012, fair value for the shares would be .37cents per share, more then a double from Fridays close. Cut the revenue growth in half to 150%, still very respectable; this gives us a low target of .18c per share. 

The company per Yahoo has zero debt.

Conclusion:

I view mirco stocks as mini State Lotto Scratch off tickets. Unlike Mega Jackpot Lottos, where your odds of winning are millions to one; scratch off tickets odds can be tilted much closer in your favor.

I can offer no intelligent view for the future of PeopleString. However, I believe the shares, offered at a steep discount to the current closing price, lets say under 5cents per share, is well worth a sizable investment for a swing at the Grand Slam Home Run Lotto Stock Jackpot! 

With 300% growth, no debt and a low cost operating base; at the right price the shares are worth the risk.

I'm putting these shares in my MicroCap Alerts list and setting the target at 5c for purchase.

Tim Kathlina

BEFORE THE BELL-SHORT DAYTRADE SET UPS FEB 3RD

Today for day trades we are looking to be against the market. Watch for these patterns to fail, moving higher left to lower right on your intra-day screen.

These stocks are extended above their upper BBands and have some form of exhaustion, ie: Bull engulfing, DOJI, Pierce Line, etc.

Check the stock beta, compared to the market, then you can calculate a downside target.

This of course will depend on overall market direction. If market is extreme bullish, then NO SHORTING. (After open 30 min, if fades, then short patterns higher left to lower right)

Tim Kathlina

BEFORE THE BELL-LOOKING FOR CONFIRMATION UPDATE FEB 2ND

Let me preference this write up by saying I approach my charting objectively. I do not watch CNBC or any other stock program. No matter what the stock market did on any given day, I view my charts with NO EXPECTATION.

I review a list of 50 ETFs and 10 Name Brand Stocks daily.

The following ETF's are major pillars of stock market bull success. To confirm a rally and be confident, these ETF's should also confirm.

I. DDM-Proshares Dow

A. So far in the new year, we can clearly see a ramp on volume compared to the previous months. This ramp in volume as resulted in a LOWER HIGH for DDM, a black spinning top today, in what I am sure was a praised BULL DAY on the TV Shows.

B. The 20 day moving average is closing fast the gap created by Santa

C. RSI<2> is making lower highs

D. On Balance Volume, which measures the positive volume on up days, verses the negative volume on down days, has COLLAPSED below its 20 day moving average.

II. IYT Transports

A. Bookend Change of Direction DOJI has emerged

B. Lower Highs RSI<2>

C. OBV remains positive

D. Consolidation or Distribution at the Volume by Price Indicator-yet to be determined

III. OIL ETF-daily

A. Oil and the DOW have diverged. They were both moving same direction until 2012. Which is correct?

B. OIL weakness despite the drum beat of war with IRAN-signaling a resumption of bad economy and lower demand

C. Extremely bearish deliberation moving below previous volume by price support

D. Volume by price is confirmed resistance now

E. OBV collapse

IV. OIL ETF-weekly

A. Suggested distribution box that began in late November; currently 3 months strong.

V. SSO-S&P Ultra daily

A. On a big rally day, SSO formed a Bearish High Wave-loss of direction. This was formed as a lower high.

B. RSI lower highs

C. OBV 20 day gap has been closed.

VI. TMF-20 year T-bill

A. Divergence from Dow

B. Double top formed between Jan 17th and today.

C. Despite stock rally, Bearish Harami formation

D. OBV move above 20 sma denied

VII. UST-7 and 10 year Treasury

A. Divergence from Dow

B. Bearish Harami

C. OBV has collapsed

Conclusion:

Next week is 180 day completion on 360 yearly cycle. Yesterday I noted on Twitter many Parabolic Sar sell signals. Today, these charts again provide NO COMPELLING REASON to be long the major indexes.

Therefore, our strategy of long HIGH RISK mojo stocks like NFLX and potentially CROX and GMCR, along with slowly averaging into TVIX for the eventual market sell off continues. (Side note, RUSSIA is looking good as alternative investment to USA)

Tim Kathlina

BEFORE THE BELL-CROX UPDATE FEB 2ND

On Jan 18th I posted this chart of CROX with a Bull Engulfing Pattern. At that time I suggested setting a purchase price above $20; with a sell target of $26.

Crox then moved into a sideways distributive pattern, which has lasted 13 days. Standard wave 2 retrace distributive patterns are 5 to 11 days. Crox moved higher out of this pattern on day 14, confirming the bull engulfing 2 candle set up; making this pattern more likely consolidation verses distributive.

Further backing the bull case is volume by price support above $18 per share.

Weekly shows the exhaustive spike down, followed by many weeks of consolidation of this spike. On Balance Volume indicates a positive divergence beginning in late October that continues to gain strength and is now up trending above its 20 day sma.

Conclusion:

I continue to believe the bull case for CROX. Once shares cross the Pivot resistance around $20.50, it should be an easy climb to the 50% Fib retrace area around $25.

Should earnings come in Feb 20th well above expectations, the share may well be looking $25 in the rear view mirror quickly.

Tim Kathlina

BEFORE THE BELL--Day Trade LONG BULL Set Ups for Feb 1st

Q: Sets up for day trading-How do we select them?

A: When in BULL market mode, we look for typical BEARISH patterns for long day trade set ups.

Q: Why Bear Set Ups

A: In BROAD INDEX BULL times, we expect BEARISH set patterns to fail. In other words, shorts who don't believe have jumped on the bear chart, but since MARKET BULLS out number BEARS, the PULLBACK is viewed as a BUYING opportunity by the larger volume traders; in this case bulls.

Q: What does Kathlina Scale Measure

A: This is my own scale that assigns a number value based on a stocks current price verses its 30 day average; also factors in supporting case indicators such as RSI or Volume.




PIVOT 10.23 S1 10.02 S2 9.88 R1 10.37 R2 10.58





PIVOT 28.74 S1 28.12 S2 27.77 R1 29.09 R2 29.71





PIVOT 86.57 S1 84.95 S2 83.75 R1 87.77 R2 89.39





PIVOT 26.50 S1 26.20 R1 26.72 R2 27.02





PIVOT 22.59 S1 21.76 R1 23.04





PIVOT 3.66 S1 3.41 R1 3.84





PIVOT 15.72 S1 15.32 R1 15.94





PIVOT 38.88 S1 38.46 R1 39.13





PIVOT 56.47 S1 55.61 R1 57.14





PIVOT 29.13 S1 28.62 R1 29.75




PIVOT 36.49 S1 35.89 R1 36.95

Conclusion:
Many different ways to trade these set ups. I have provided Pivots and Support/Resistance opening figures under each chart. These figures have to be updated every 1hr of trading or the data is not correct.

Don't trade against the market or the 10year bond yield! (As example if market turns down, then these patterns likely to hold and be decent shorts. For now, market indicated higher, thus these make potential short cover longs)

Good Luck

Tim Kathlina