AFTER THE BELL-BULL AND BEAR DOJI PATTERN SET-UPS JAN 12TH

DOJI:
The appearance of a Bearish/Bullish (Doji) Star Pattern in an uptrend/downtrend shows that buyers/sellers are now losing control and the market is moving to a deadlock between buyers and sellers. This deadlock or balance between buyers and sellers may result because of a diminution in the buying force or an increase in the selling force. The star tells us that the strength of uptrend/downtrend is now dissipating and the market is increasingly vulnerable to a setback/advance.

Conclusion: These patterns require follow thru confirmation. Note however, Transports, large caps, mid-caps are all backed up by low RSI<2> readings.

As noted in yesterdays Semiconductor post, I believe Intel earnings report will bring in a short term top of some sort. Either an exuberant exhaustion style high, based on good numbers, or a disappointment ceiling, based on bad numbers.

The question remains, will this be the high of the year????? Not sure yet.

Tim Kathlina

December 7th After The Bell-On Balance Volume

On Balance Volume defined-Total volume for each day is assigned a positive or negative value depending on prices being higher or lower that day. A higher close results in the volume for that day to get a positive value, while a lower close results in negative value.^[2] So, when prices are going up, OBV should be going up too, and when prices make a new rally high, then OBV should too. If OBV fails to go past its previous rally high, then this is a negative divergence, suggesting a weak move

EDC-Emerging markets-prices higher, but OBV lower lows.

EDZ-Emerging markets bear-lower highs, but new high On Balance Volume. Again, no confirmation of rally.

SOXS-Semi Bear, again as prices pull in, smart money is stepping in and buying.

TQQQ-As the bull etf moves higher, OBV moves lower; not confirming the bull move. OBV shows smart money selling the rally.

Finally the fear gauge measure-VIX. As the market algos push stocks higher on every EU bs rumor, its clear smart money gets more and more nervous. As the Vix falls, money has zoomed in to buy protection.

Finally, per ICI fund flow data out today for fund flows over the last week, average joe American sold a whopping $6.7 billion from domestic equity funds: the most since the week after the US downgrade.

Tim Kathlina

Nov 16th After The Bell Review

This continues to look like a distribution pattern, not a consolidation. This Friday will be 45 days since the 1st wave low in October and could be a significant top. Notice I have posted Buy and Sell signals as identified by SARS; which is a derivative of the RSI indicator. Also notice the downtrend channel that is forming with lower highs.
As noted in yesterdays post, COPX did break down and confirm a sell signal with the black candle stick that moved lower all day; breaking the line in the sand.
The CCI(30) indicator for SPY is forming a rolling top. We still need confirmation of trend, so caution is still in order.

Here we have the SDS, which is short the S&P. Today we have a SAR buy confirmation with a high wave candle that has taken out previous congestion. CCI(30) does not confirm the uptrend yet.

Question: Are emerging markets front running the US? Or can the US markets move higher as emerging markets slide? EDZ is short emerging markets etf. It is the strongest of the shorts and has moved right up to the line in the sand. Will this take out this line and confirm an uptrend??? If so, the play is to buy the dips as THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.

DPK seems to be front running the US and giving strong indication of a tripple top breakout; which is bad for stock bulls and good for bears. (In case you were not aware)

Tim Kathlina